Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 56.09%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Dinamo Zagreb had a probability of 19.56%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.99%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.5%), while for a Dinamo Zagreb win it was 0-1 (6.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.