Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 72.5%. A draw had a probability of 16.4% and a win for Arminia Bielefeld had a probability of 11.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.41%) and 1-0 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.69%), while for an Arminia Bielefeld win it was 1-2 (3.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Arminia Bielefeld |
| 72.5% | 16.44% | 11.05% |
| Both teams to score 52.29% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64% | 36% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.9% | 58.09% |
| RB Leipzig Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.35% | 8.65% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 70.18% | 29.81% |
| Arminia Bielefeld Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.24% | 42.76% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 20.91% | 79.09% |
| Score Analysis |
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Arminia Bielefeld |
| 2-0 @ 11.08% 2-1 @ 9.41% 1-0 @ 9.05% 3-0 @ 9.04% 3-1 @ 7.68% 4-0 @ 5.54% 4-1 @ 4.7% 3-2 @ 3.26% 5-0 @ 2.71% 5-1 @ 2.3% 4-2 @ 2% 6-0 @ 1.11% 5-2 @ 0.98% 6-1 @ 0.94% Other @ 2.7% Total : 72.5% | 1-1 @ 7.69% 2-2 @ 4% 0-0 @ 3.7% 3-3 @ 0.92% Other @ 0.13% Total : 16.44% | 1-2 @ 3.27% 0-1 @ 3.14% 0-2 @ 1.33% 2-3 @ 1.13% 1-3 @ 0.93% Other @ 1.26% Total : 11.05% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 97 | 37 | 60 | 77 |
| 2 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 22 | 3 | 9 | 85 | 52 | 33 | 69 |
| 3 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 80 | 47 | 33 | 64 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 72 | 37 | 35 | 58 |
| 5 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 50 | 44 | 6 | 57 |
| 6 | Freiburg | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 55 |
| 7 | FC Koln | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 52 |
| 8 | Mainz 05 | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 50 | 45 | 5 | 46 |
| 9 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 58 | 60 | -2 | 46 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 54 | 61 | -7 | 45 |
| 11 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 45 | 49 | -4 | 42 |
| 12 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 42 |
| 14 | Augsburg | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 39 | 56 | -17 | 38 |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 41 | 59 | -18 | 33 |
| 16 | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 33 |
| R | Arminia Bielefeld | 34 | 5 | 13 | 16 | 27 | 53 | -26 | 28 |
| R | Greuther Furth | 34 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 28 | 82 | -54 | 18 |
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