Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 41.56%. A win for Fluminense had a probability of 29.68% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.21%) and 1-2 (8.11%). The likeliest Fluminense win was 1-0 (10.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
