Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union SG win with a probability of 40.81%. A win for Mechelen had a probability of 36.73% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union SG win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.66%) and 0-2 (5.01%). The likeliest Mechelen win was 2-1 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.
