Given that 12 of Sarmiento's last 13 matches have produced fewer than three goals, Friday's clash looks destined to be a low-scoring affair, especially when you consider that Damonte's men have not conceded a goal in five outings.
Accordingly, we expect the visitors to notch a clean-sheet victory at the Estadio Libertadores de America, extending their unbeaten streak to seven games while heaping more misery on Independiente.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 45.39%. A draw had a probability of 31.2% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 23.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.02%) and 2-1 (7.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.4%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (11.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente would win this match.
-0.08) 
0.03) 
