Africa Cup Of Nations section header

Africa Cup of Nations

Gambia national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Oct 14, 2024 at 3pm UK
Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi
Madagascar national football team

Gambia
1 - 0
Madagascar

Barrow (62')
Ceesay (30'), Fadera (38')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Patrick Laiton (27'), Caddy (40')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Gambia and Madagascar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Gambia

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Madagascar 1-1 Gambia
Friday, October 11 at 3pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Madagascar

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Madagascar 1-1 Gambia
Friday, October 11 at 3pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Madagascar win with a probability of 36.31%. A win for Gambia had a probability of 36.19% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Madagascar win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.89%) and 0-2 (6.52%). The likeliest Gambia win was 1-0 (10.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.

Result
GambiaDrawMadagascar
36.19% (0.903 0.9)27.49% (0.154 0.15)36.31% (-1.058 -1.06)
Both teams to score 49.36% (-0.443 -0.44)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.68% (-0.569 -0.57)56.32% (0.569 0.57)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.65% (-0.463 -0.46)77.35% (0.462 0.46)
Gambia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.22% (0.283 0.28)29.78% (-0.283 -0.28)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.14% (0.341 0.34)65.86% (-0.342 -0.34)
Madagascar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.29% (-0.917 -0.92)29.71% (0.917 0.92)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.23% (-1.128 -1.13)65.76% (1.126 1.13)
Score Analysis
    Gambia 36.18%
    Madagascar 36.31%
    Draw 27.49%
GambiaDrawMadagascar
1-0 @ 10.71% (0.31 0.31)
2-1 @ 7.88% (0.095 0.09)
2-0 @ 6.49% (0.239 0.24)
3-1 @ 3.18% (0.062 0.06)
3-0 @ 2.62% (0.116 0.12)
3-2 @ 1.93% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-1 @ 0.96% (0.026 0.03)
Other @ 2.41%
Total : 36.18%
1-1 @ 13% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
0-0 @ 8.85% (0.192 0.19)
2-2 @ 4.78% (-0.064 -0.06)
Other @ 0.86%
Total : 27.49%
0-1 @ 10.73% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
1-2 @ 7.89% (-0.17 -0.17)
0-2 @ 6.52% (-0.192 -0.19)
1-3 @ 3.19% (-0.153 -0.15)
0-3 @ 2.64% (-0.148 -0.15)
2-3 @ 1.93% (-0.077 -0.08)
1-4 @ 0.97% (-0.073 -0.07)
Other @ 2.43%
Total : 36.31%

How you voted: Gambia vs Madagascar

Gambia
60.7%
Draw
35.7%
Madagascar
3.6%
28
Head to Head
Oct 11, 2024 3pm
Group Stage
Madagascar
1-1
Gambia
Couturier (45+2')
Raveloson (25')
Minteh (90+7')
Manneh (85')
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rhs 2.0
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