Finnish Veikkausliiga | Gameweek 5
May 3, 2025 at 1pm UK
Mustapekka Areena

Gnistan
2 - 0
Mariehamn

Hanninen (3', 6')
Latonen (45+2')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Lindgren (35')
Coverage of the Finnish Veikkausliiga clash between Gnistan and IFK Mariehamn.

Form, Standings, Stats

Gnistan

All competitions
Last Game: Gnistan 1-2 KuPS
Sunday, April 27 at 2pm in Finnish Veikkausliiga

IFK Mariehamn

All competitions
Last Game: Mariehamn 3-2 Ilves
Sunday, April 27 at 4.30pm in Finnish Veikkausliiga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gnistan win with a probability of 54.1%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for IFK Mariehamn had a probability of 22.62%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gnistan win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.81%) and 2-0 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.01%), while for a IFK Mariehamn win it was 0-1 (6.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gnistan would win this match.

Result
GnistanDrawIFK Mariehamn
54.1% (0.126 0.13)23.28% (0.193 0.19)22.62% (-0.314 -0.31)
Both teams to score 54.58% (-1.042 -1.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.24% (-1.185 -1.19)45.77% (1.189 1.19)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.92% (-1.137 -1.14)68.09% (1.141 1.14)
Gnistan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.17% (-0.384 -0.38)16.83% (0.387 0.39)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.18% (-0.687 -0.69)46.83% (0.691 0.69)
IFK Mariehamn Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.63% (-0.94199999999999 -0.94)34.37% (0.945 0.95)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.92% (-1.019 -1.02)71.08% (1.025 1.02)
Score Analysis
    Gnistan 54.09%
    IFK Mariehamn 22.62%
    Draw 23.28%
GnistanDrawIFK Mariehamn
1-0 @ 10.3% (0.377 0.38)
2-1 @ 9.81% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
2-0 @ 9.18% (0.228 0.23)
3-1 @ 5.83% (-0.08 -0.08)
3-0 @ 5.46% (0.067 0.07)
3-2 @ 3.11% (-0.124 -0.12)
4-1 @ 2.6% (-0.069 -0.07)
4-0 @ 2.43% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.39% (-0.074 -0.07)
5-1 @ 0.93% (-0.037 -0.04)
Other @ 3.07%
Total : 54.09%
1-1 @ 11.01% (0.14 0.14)
0-0 @ 5.79% (0.288 0.29)
2-2 @ 5.24% (-0.139 -0.14)
3-3 @ 1.11% (-0.075 -0.08)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 23.28%
0-1 @ 6.18% (0.154 0.15)
1-2 @ 5.88% (-0.08 -0.08)
0-2 @ 3.3% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-3 @ 2.09% (-0.084 -0.08)
2-3 @ 1.87% (-0.099 -0.1)
0-3 @ 1.18% (-0.031 -0.03)
Other @ 2.13%
Total : 22.62%

Head to Head
Sep 15, 2024 1pm
Gameweek 1
Gnistan
2-1
Mariehamn
Hanninen (28', 46')
Heiskanen (90+1')
Patut (46')
Andersson (90+4')
Aug 21, 2024 4pm
Gameweek 15
Gnistan
2-1
Mariehamn
Heiskanen (47'), Latonen (85')
Pettersson (45'), Kabashi (59')
Fonsell (7')
Cardoso (36'), Auvinen (90+3')
May 26, 2024 4.30pm
Gameweek 8
Mariehamn
1-1
Gnistan
Dahlstrom (16')
Tehe Olawale (21'), Fonsell (90')
Tatar (26')
Sarr (4'), Olander (50'), Tatar (55'), Ojala (67')
Oct 29, 2023 1pm
Final 2nd Leg
Mariehamn
3-0
Gnistan
Tehe Olawale (40'), Hopcutt (72'), Ngamba (90+1')
Lahti (49')

Medo (48'), Woivalin (51'), Kabashi (54')
Kabashi (90+4')
Oct 25, 2023 4.30pm
Final 1st Leg
Gnistan
0-0
Mariehamn
Woivalin (34'), Ala-Iso (53'), Linnas (59')