Preview: Wimbledon: Oliver Tarvet vs. Carlos Alcaraz - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Three-peat-chasing Carlos Alcaraz survived a scare in his Wimbledon opener on Monday to set up a second-round match with home qualifier Oliver Tarvet on Wednesday.    

The second seed needed five sets to beat veteran Italian Fabio Fognini, who gave everything in his final Championships appearance, and the two-time champion will face an opponent fresh off his maiden ATP Tour victory at his home Slam.

Match preview

Alcaraz was tipped to beat Fognini in straight sets, but the two-time Wimbledon champion made hard work of the challenge posed by the soon-to-retire Italian in the London sunshine.

With temperatures hitting a new 32.3°C high on Monday, the second seed took four hours and 37 minutes to secure a battling 7-5, 6-7(5), 7-5, 2-6, 6-1 victory, adding another five-set Grand Slam win to his tally.

By defeating Fognini, the 22-year-old improved to 14-1 in five-setters at majors, with 10 consecutive wins in such matches since losing to Matteo Berrettini at the Australian Open in 2022.

Having narrowly avoided becoming the third Wimbledon champion after Manuel Santana in 1967 and Lleyton Hewitt in 2003 to lose their opening match, Alcaraz, now 43-5 for the season, is aiming for his 44th win to continue his pursuit of a third consecutive title at the Championships.

The Spanish sensation's performance at Queen's improved after early struggles against Adam Walton and Jaume Munar, and observers can expect similar resilience from the five-time Grand Slam champion who is tipped to beat Tarvet on Wednesday.The world No. 733, who required a wildcard to enter qualifying last week, came through his Grand Slam debut by defeating fellow qualifier Leandro Riedi 6-4, 6-4, 6-4.

Playing possibly on a major court in the second round, it will be intriguing to see whether the British player competes bravely or with nerves against a top-10 player and leading grass court star.

Although the young Brit has only just secured his first tour-level victory, he is 10-1 outside of the ATP Tour and 11-1 overall, showing promise in the lower circuits as he prepares for the biggest match of his embryonic career.

In only his second match at this level, few in the crowd will be rooting for a surprise win, though the Wimbledon debutant is a significant underdog in the second round.

A victory for the underdog would end Alcaraz’s 19-match winning streak and 15-match run at SW19, a result that would surprise even the most optimistic supporters.

Tournament so far

Carlos Alcaraz:

First round: vs. Fabio Fognini 7-5 6-7(5) 7-5 2-6 6-1

Oliver Tarvet:

First round: vs. Leandro Riedi 6-4 6-4 6-4

Head To Head

Both players will meet for the first time on the men’s tour, with the winner on Wednesday taking a 1-0 lead in their head-to-head record.    

Alcaraz begins the second round riding a 19-match winning streak, and the Spaniard, who has not lost to a player outside the top 100 since retiring against Thiago Monteiro in Rio last year and in a completed match since falling to Fabian Marozsan in May 2023, aims to extend his run of 12 consecutive victories over such opponents.

We say: Alcaraz to win in four sets

While the Wimbledon favourite will be favoured by many to beat Tarvet in straight sets, the qualifier’s element of surprise, home advantage and Alcaraz’s occasional dips in performance could see the second seed drop one set but no more.    

The world No. 2 is expected to avoid a shock upset against the qualifier and advance to a third-round clash against Felix Auger-Aliassime or Jan-Lennard Struff.  

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