Preview: Wimbledon: Jack Draper vs. Sebastian Baez - prediction, form, head-to-head

Jack Draper is the clear favourite heading into Tuesday’s Wimbledon first-round match against seven-time ATP Tour champion Sebastian Baez.    

The fourth seed is the highest-ranked British No. 1 at the Championships since Andy Murray in 2017, and he aims to build on an impressive grass season in his third tour-level encounter with the world No. 38.

Match preview

Draper’s quest to finally reach the third round at Wimbledon begins on Tuesday when he faces Baez in the opening round.

The world No. 4’s previous appearances at SW19 have seen him fall to Novak Djokovic in the opening round in 2021, Alex de Minaur in round two the following year and Cameron Norrie at the same stage 12 months ago.

Considering that the world No. 4 enters this year's Championships as one of the leading players on the men's tour, a significant rise from his No. 253 in 2021, No. 94 in 2022 and No. 28 last year, the 23-year-old is favoured to end his second-round hoodoo this year.

Draper's preparation for his fourth Wimbledon appearance saw him reach the semi-finals of the Queen's Club Championships before losing to Jiri Lehecka in three sets.

Nonetheless, the British No. 1, whose draw will pose significant challenges as he advances, will be cautious of an early upset against an opponent who has won seven tour-level titles.

Baez, a former world No. 18, enters this year's Wimbledon on a losing streak at the event since his main-draw debut victory in 2022.

Since beating Taro Daniel in straight sets three years ago, the Argentine player has suffered defeats to David Goffin, Tomas Barrios Vera and Brandon Nakashima, only winning a set in the loss to Vera in 2023.

With six of his seven titles coming on clay and the other on hard courts, Baez's struggles on grass are highlighted by never reaching a final on the surface and a 3-7 career record.

The world No. 38 has suffered five consecutive losses on grass since beating Nuno Borges in Eastbourne two years ago, and no competitive action leading into Wimbledon suggests another loss on the surface.

Any result other than a Draper victory will be an upset, even if the 24-year-old has been an ATP champion more times (seven) than the home star (three).

Head To Head

Adelaide (2024) - Round of 32: Draper 6-1 6-3  

Monte-Carlo Masters (2023) - Round of 64: Draper 6-3 7-5    

Draper leads Baez 2-0 on the ATP Tour, and the fourth seed is expected to extend that record heading into their third meeting.    

The British No. 1 has not dropped a set in their previous encounters on the clay courts of Monte Carlo and the hard courts of Adelaide in 2023 and 2024, respectively.    

While this will be their first match on grass, Baez having no grass-court experience before this year’s Slam magnifies the challenge he faces against the home favourite.  

We say: Draper to win in three sets

Baez has only secured three tour-level wins on grass, highlighting his difficulties on the surface.    

Starting this year's Wimbledon on a five-match losing streak on grass, the world No. 38, who has not exited the Championships in the first round in back-to-back years, is likely to be comfortably beaten by Draper in straight sets.

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