Sunday, June 29

Sports Mole previews Monday’s Wimbledon first-round match between Fabio Fognini and Carlos Alcaraz, including predictions, form and their head-to-head record.

Two-time defending Wimbledon champion Carlos Alcaraz’s pursuit of a third consecutive title begins on Monday, when he faces Fabio Fognini in the first round.    

The Spanish sensation enters this year’s Championships on an 18-match winning streak, including a commanding comeback to win the French Open and a recent successful run at the Queen’s Club Championships, making him the heavy favourite to defeat an opponent who has yet to win on the ATP Tour main draw in 2025.  

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Match preview

Having upset Novak Djokovic two years ago in 2023 and dismantled the 24-time Grand Slam champion 12 months later, Alcaraz starts this year’s Wimbledon as the favourite to secure a third straight title.

The 22-year-old has won 14 consecutive matches at SW19 — potentially extending to 21 if he remains unbeaten in the next two weeks — and his form before the tournament should send shivers down the spines of his rivals.

Since losing to Holger Rune in Barcelona, the world No. 2 has recorded 18 straight wins, claiming the Masters 1000 titles in Rome by beating Jannik Sinner, successfully defending his crown at Roland Garros where he again beat his friendly rival and adapting swiftly at Queen’s to claim a second title in three years.

After an extended clay season, some might have expected a slow start on grass; however, Alcaraz overcame early issues in his tournament opener against Adam Walton and a lengthy three-set battle with countryman Jaume Munar before showing glimpses of his best level in defeating Arthur Rinderknech, Roberto Bautista Agut and in-form Jiri Lehecka to win the title.

The second seed chasing a hat-trick enters Wimbledon with a season record of 42-5, and few would bet against the five-time ATP champion to claim his sixth title of 2025 at SW19.

Opposite him stands Fognini, a former world No. 9, competing in his 15th Wimbledon main draw this year.

The 38-year-old, however, is yet to secure a main draw win on the men’s tour in 2025, having fallen to six defeats against Raphael Collignon, Francisco Cerundolo, Laslo Djere, Jacob Fearnley, Corentin Moutet and Daniel Altmaier.

Nonetheless, the world No. 130 can find encouragement in his last two encounters against Moutet and Altmaier at Stuttgart and Mallorca, where he took a set on grass ahead of his challenging match against the defending champion.

While such positives may bolster the former top 10 player, whose previous four defeats this year came in straight sets, the veteran hopes to build on taking sets to the deciders in pre-Wimbledon tournaments against an opponent 16 years his junior.

Though Fognini may no longer be the force he once was, his 18 career wins at Wimbledon surpass his record in Australia (16 wins) and the United States (10), showing some competence on grass.

The seasoned seven-time titlist might be the underdog in improving on his 18-14 record at SW19, but he will aim to complicate matters for this year's favourite in London.

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Head To Head

Rio de Janeiro (2023) - Round of 16: Alcaraz 6-7(5) 6-2 6-4

Rio de Janeiro (2022) - Semi-final: Alcaraz 6-2 7-5

Alcaraz leads Fognini 2-0 in their head-to-head before their third match on the ATP Tour.

However, both meetings occurred on clay courts in Rio de Janeiro, with their most recent encounter happening two years ago.

Having been beaten in straight sets the previous year, the Italian won the opening-set tie-break in 2023 before Alcaraz raised his level to outlast the former world No. 9 in two hours and 47 minutes.

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We say: Alcaraz to win in three sets

Although the second seed can sometimes dip in form, Fognini’s ongoing losing streak and Alcaraz’s 18-match winning run into Wimbledon suggest that Monday’s opener should be straightforward.    

While some might back the veteran to take a set, we expect the star chasing a third title to secure victory in straight sets and advance at the Championships.

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