Wimbledon: Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Five weeks after their electrifying match on Court Philippe Chatrier, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, who have split the last six Grand Slam titles between them, will face each other on the Wimbledon lawns for a chance at glory in Sunday’s final.

Alcaraz is aiming for a third consecutive title at SW19 and trying to become the first man since Bjorn Borg (1978-1980) to win the French Open and Wimbledon in successive years in the Open Era, while his Italian rival, fresh off ending an ailing Novak Djokovic’s quest for an eighth title, gets another chance against the Spanish sensation as he seeks his first Major outside of hard courts.

Match preview

Backed to dispatch Taylor Fritz in the semi-finals on Friday, Alcaraz produced sublime tennis on a hot day at the Championships to record his 10th top-five win at a Slam en route to a 6-4, 5-7, 6-3, 7-6(6) victory in two hours and 48 minutes. 

By recording a third consecutive ATP Tour win over the American, who was trying to reach a second Grand Slam final, the 22-year-old second seed has now improved to 24-0 since losing to Holger Rune at the Barcelona Open final in April, and his 2025 record stands at 48-5. 

Alcaraz, who is unbeaten at Wimbledon since losing in four sets to the man he faces on Sunday, carries a 20-match winning streak into the eagerly awaited final at SW19, where he aims for his third consecutive title to maintain his five-match unbeaten record in Slam finals.

That winning streak at the majors faced its most formidable challenge at the French Open five weeks ago, with Sinner holding three championship points; however, the world No. 2 rallied to prevent his friendly rival’s dream on Philippe Chatrier, thereby securing a fifth consecutive victory over the Italian star and the second in 2025. 

Having begun his bid for a third consecutive title with a gruelling five-set victory over the now-retired Fabio Fognini on day one of the Championships, Alcaraz’s form has improved dramatically since being pushed to a decider by the Italian veteran.

Now, the two-time defending champion, who has dominated Centre Court in 2023 and 2024, aims for his 21st straight win here to match Borg as the first player in the Open Era to win the Channel Slam in consecutive years, and the first since Roger Federer to win three Wimbledon titles in a row.

Standing in Alcaraz’s way is Sinner, the world No. 1 and a first-time finalist at the All England Club, who dispatched a physically limited Novak Djokovic in less than two hours on Friday for a shot at revenge after June’s heartbreak in Paris.

The top-ranked player on the men’s tour may have been sidelined for three months due to a doping suspension following his success at the Australian Open in January; however, the 23-year-old’s high-quality play has persisted, as shown by his appearances in the title matches in Rome, Paris and now SW19.

Nonetheless, Sinner’s pursuit of a Masters 1000 title on home soil was thwarted by Alcaraz, while his dream of a first Grand Slam victory away from a hard court was dashed by the Spanish sensation, his bete noire and kryptonite.

The world No. 1 enters Sunday’s decider aiming to be third-time lucky after this season’s previous setbacks, to banish the memory of failing to take one of three match points on the Paris clay five weeks ago, and to end a five-match losing run against his precociously talented rival. 

If marks were awarded for stopping Djokovic, Sinner would earn some for being the first man since Tomas Berdych in the 2017 quarter-final to prevent the Serb from reaching the title match at Wimbledon; however, no such awards exist, and no such recognition is given. 

Instead, the nearly unstoppable Italian, who has surpassed Federer as the youngest player in the Open Era to reach four consecutive Slam finals, must find a way to solve his Alcaraz puzzle to secure his fourth major and his first on a different surface from hard courts.

Tournament so far

Jannik Sinner:    

First round: vs. Luca Nardi 6-4 6-3 6-0    

Second round: vs. Aleksandar Vukic 6-1 6-1 6-3    

Third round: vs. Pedro Martinez 6-1 6-3 6-1    

Fourth round: vs. Grigor Dimitrov 3-6 5-7 2-2 ret.   

Quarter-final: vs. Ben Shelton 7-6(2) 6-4 6-4  

Semi-final: vs. Novak Djokovic 6-3 6-3 6-4

Carlos Alcaraz:  

First round: vs. Fabio Fognini 7-5 6-7(5) 7-5 2-6 6-1  

Second round: vs. Oliver Tarvet 6-1 6-4 6-4  

Third round: vs. Jan-Lennard Struff 6-1 3-6 6-3 6-4  

Fourth round: vs. Andrey Rublev 6-7(5) 6-3 6-4 6-4  

Quarter-final: vs. Cameron Norrie 6-2 6-3 6-3

Semi-final: vs. Taylor Fritz 6-4 5-7 6-3 7-6(6)

Head To Head

French Open (2025) – Final: Alcaraz wins 4–6 6–7(4) 6–4 7–6(3) 7–6 (10–2)

Italian Open (2025) – Final: Alcaraz wins 7-6(5) 6-1  

China Open (2024) - Final: Alcaraz wins 6-7(6) 6-4 7-6(3)  

French Open (2024) - Semi-final: Alcaraz wins 2-6 6-3 3-6 6-4 6-3  

Indian Wells Masters (2024) - Semi-final: Alcaraz wins 1-6 6-3 6-2  

China Open (2023) - Semi-final: Sinner wins 7-6(4) 6-1  

Miami Open (2023) - Semi-final: Sinner wins 6-7(4)6-4 6-2  

Indian Wells Masters (2023) - Semi-final: Alcaraz wins 7-6(4) 6-3  

US Open (2022) - Quarter-final: Alcaraz wins 6-3 6-7(7) 6-7(0) 7-5 6-3  

Croatia Open (2022) - Final: Sinner wins 6-7(5) 6-1 6-1  

Wimbledon (2022) – Fourth round: Sinner wins 6-1 6-4 6-7(8) 6-3  

Paris Masters (2021) - Second round: Alcaraz wins 7-6(1) 7-5

Having led 4-3 in their rivalry, Sinner has since lost five consecutive matches in the last 18 months to Alcaraz, who now holds an 8-4 advantage over the Italian.

Both players face each other for the first time since their five-hour, 29-minute marathon in Paris, where the Spanish star saved three match points in the fourth set before securing a thrilling win.

That victory marked Alcaraz's third consecutive win over Sinner in title matches, following wins in Beijing last year and the Rome Masters before the 2025 French Open.

Furthermore, the second seed has won every five-set match in this rivalry — the 2022 US Open, the 2024 French Open semi-final and this year's French Open final — indicating that Sinner needs to win in four sets to beat the two-time Wimbledon champion, who has never lost a Grand Slam final and has won 11 consecutive five-set matches (14-1 overall) since losing to Matteo Berrettini at the 2022 Australian Open.

Entering Sunday's match as the last man to defeat Alcaraz at the Championships in 2022, the 23-year-old No. 1 seed aims to end the five-time Grand Slam winner's streak in title matches at the Majors. 

The 19-time ATP champion's only previous victory over Alcaraz in a final came in 2022, when he claimed a three-set win over the Spaniard on the clay courts of Umag.

Apart from an off-colour performance against Grigor Dimitrov, Sinner has been solid on serve, winning 82% of points on his first delivery and 64% on his second, while breaking his opponents 25 times.

On the other side of the net is Alcaraz, who has landed 64% of first serves (63% for his opponent), has won 79% of points on those first deliveries and has claimed 54% of second-serve points, significantly behind Sinner.

Notably, Alcaraz has won 30 return games en route to the final, five more than the top seed, albeit with the Italian playing fewer games.

We say: Alcaraz to win in five sets

Although we backed Sinner to topple Alcaraz in four sets in Paris, a prediction that fell just short after the Italian failed to convert three championship points, the Spaniard somehow overturned the No. 1 player’s advantage to secure the French Open title.

Expecting the No. 1 seed to end the two-time defending champion’s 20-match winning run makes logical sense; he is strong on serve and on return, he has few weaknesses on his forehand and backhand wings and he hits the ball more fiercely and accurately than most, if not all, on the men’s tour.

However, watching Sinner struggle against Dimitrov was instructive, as the top seed seemed unable to find solutions to the veteran’s relentless attacking play and constant slicing, and few can match that kind of variety better than the second seed.

Thus, we are backing Alcaraz to record another five-set victory at the Italian’s expense to complete the hat-trick of Wimbledon titles and extend his winning streak in Grand Slam finals to six.