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UEFA Conference League

Conference League | First Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Jul 11, 2024 at 6pm UK
Stadyen Tarpeda

Torpedo-BelAZ
2 - 4
Milsami

Pobudey (33'), Sharkovskiy (89')
Sukurov (58')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Harouna Camara (20'), Spataru (30', 50'), Premudrov (80' og.)
Bolohan (40'), Harouna Camara (73')
Coverage of the Conference League First Qualifying Round clash between Torpedo-BelAZ and Milsami.

Form, Standings, Stats

Torpedo-BelAZ

All competitions
Last Game: Torpedo-BelAZ 3-0 Slavia Mozyr
Friday, July 5 at 7pm in Belarusian Premier League

Milsami

All competitions
Last Game: Milsami 0-1 Panevezys
Thursday, July 20 at 5pm in Europa Conference League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Torpedo-BelAZ win with a probability of 58.88%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Milsami had a probability of 17.04%.

The most likely scoreline for a Torpedo-BelAZ win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.15%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.2%), while for a Milsami win it was 0-1 (6.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.

Result
Torpedo-BelAZDrawMilsami
58.88% (-0.797 -0.8)24.08% (0.392 0.39)17.04% (0.399 0.4)
Both teams to score 43.6% (-0.307 -0.31)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.08% (-0.833 -0.83)55.91% (0.82899999999999 0.83)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.98% (-0.682 -0.68)77.02% (0.679 0.68)
Torpedo-BelAZ Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.18% (-0.60900000000001 -0.61)18.82% (0.606 0.61)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.75% (-1.025 -1.03)50.25% (1.019 1.02)
Milsami Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
53.71% (0.023000000000003 0.02)46.29% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.05% (0.018000000000001 0.02)81.94% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Torpedo-BelAZ 58.87%
    Milsami 17.04%
    Draw 24.07%
Torpedo-BelAZDrawMilsami
1-0 @ 14.55% (0.19 0.19)
2-0 @ 12.15% (-0.08 -0.08)
2-1 @ 9.36% (-0.055 -0.05)
3-0 @ 6.77% (-0.178 -0.18)
3-1 @ 5.21% (-0.133 -0.13)
4-0 @ 2.83% (-0.131 -0.13)
4-1 @ 2.18% (-0.1 -0.1)
3-2 @ 2.01% (-0.05 -0.05)
5-0 @ 0.94% (-0.063 -0.06)
Other @ 2.88%
Total : 58.87%
1-1 @ 11.2% (0.15 0.15)
0-0 @ 8.71% (0.275 0.28)
2-2 @ 3.61% (-0.018 -0.02)
Other @ 0.56%
Total : 24.07%
0-1 @ 6.71% (0.216 0.22)
1-2 @ 4.32% (0.061 0.06)
0-2 @ 2.58% (0.085 0.09)
1-3 @ 1.11% (0.016 0.02)
2-3 @ 0.93% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 1.4%
Total : 17.04%