Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 53.13%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Numancia had a probability of 20.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.17%) and 2-1 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.13%), while for a Numancia win it was 0-1 (8.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rayo Vallecano would win this match.
