Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mirandes win with a probability of 36.65%. A win for Lugo had a probability of 34.19% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mirandes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.52%) and 2-0 (7.01%). The likeliest Lugo win was 0-1 (11.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mirandes would win this match.
