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World Cup

Saint Lucia national football team
World Cup Qualifying - North Central America | Second Round
Jun 11, 2024 at 8pm UK
Beausejour Stadium
Aruba national football team

St Lucia
2 - 2
Aruba

Stanislas (45+2'), Pearson (67')
Doxilly (90+2')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Bennett (21'), Marselia (43' pen.)
Lewis (90+3')
Coverage of the World Cup Qualifying - North Central America Second Round clash between Saint Lucia and Aruba.

Form, Standings, Stats

Saint Lucia

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Haiti 2-1 St Lucia
Thursday, June 6 at 10pm in World Cup Qualifying - North Central America

Aruba

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Aruba 0-2 Curacao
Sunday, June 9 at 1am in World Cup Qualifying - North Central America

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint Lucia win with a probability of 38.49%. A win for Aruba had a probability of 35.15% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Saint Lucia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (6.62%). The likeliest Aruba win was 0-1 (9.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.

Result
Saint LuciaDrawAruba
38.49% (0.061 0.06)26.36% (0.049000000000003 0.05)35.15% (-0.106 -0.11)
Both teams to score 52.92% (-0.174 -0.17)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.2% (-0.21599999999999 -0.22)51.8% (0.224 0.22)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.43% (-0.189 -0.19)73.56% (0.194 0.19)
Saint Lucia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.72% (-0.063000000000002 -0.06)26.27% (0.068999999999999 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.61% (-0.086999999999996 -0.09)61.39% (0.094000000000001 0.09)
Aruba Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.78% (-0.17 -0.17)28.22% (0.175 0.18)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.08% (-0.217 -0.22)63.92% (0.223 0.22)
Score Analysis
    Saint Lucia 38.49%
    Aruba 35.15%
    Draw 26.35%
Saint LuciaDrawAruba
1-0 @ 9.91% (0.068 0.07)
2-1 @ 8.38%
2-0 @ 6.62% (0.033 0.03)
3-1 @ 3.73% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
3-0 @ 2.95% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.36% (-0.017 -0.02)
4-1 @ 1.25% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-0 @ 0.99% (0.001 0)
Other @ 2.3%
Total : 38.49%
1-1 @ 12.53% (0.02 0.02)
0-0 @ 7.41% (0.065 0.06)
2-2 @ 5.3% (-0.026 -0.03)
3-3 @ 1% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 26.35%
0-1 @ 9.38% (0.037000000000001 0.04)
1-2 @ 7.93% (-0.023 -0.02)
0-2 @ 5.93% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
1-3 @ 3.35% (-0.026 -0.03)
0-3 @ 2.5% (-0.015 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.24% (-0.022 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.06% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 2.76%
Total : 35.15%

How you voted: St Lucia vs Aruba

Saint Lucia
50.0%
Draw
30.0%
Aruba
20.0%
10
rhs 2.0
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