UEFA Nations League

Nations League | League C

Oct 15, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Windsor Park

N. Ireland
5 - 0
Bulgaria

Price (15', 29', 81'), Mitov (32' og.), Magennis (89')
Price (25'), Toal (41')

FT(HT: 3-0)

Despodov (30'), Krastev (38')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Nations League clash between Northern Ireland and Bulgaria, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Northern Ireland

All competitions

Nations League

Last Game: Belarus 0-0 N. Ireland
Saturday, October 12 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League C3 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Northern Ireland	0	0	0
2	Bulgaria	0	0	0
3	Luxembourg	0	0	0
4	Belarus	0	0	0

Bulgaria

All competitions

Nations League

Last Game: Bulgaria 0-0 Luxembourg
Saturday, October 12 at 5pm in Nations League

Current League C3 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Northern Ireland	0	0	0
2	Bulgaria	0	0	0
3	Luxembourg	0	0	0
4	Belarus	0	0	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northern Ireland win with a probability of 52.01%. A draw had a probability of 28.2% and a win for Bulgaria had a probability of 19.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Northern Ireland win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.54%) and 2-1 (8.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.6%), while for a Bulgaria win it was 0-1 (9.05%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Northern Ireland would win this match.

Result
Northern Ireland	Draw	Bulgaria
52.01% ( 0.43)	28.17% ( -0.15)	19.82% ( -0.28)

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	PTS
C	Liverpool	38	25	9	4	86	41	45	84
2	Arsenal	38	20	14	4	69	34	35	74
3	Manchester City Man City	38	21	8	9	72	44	28	71
4	Chelsea	38	20	9	9	64	43	21	69
5	Newcastle United Newcastle	38	20	6	12	68	47	21	66
6	Aston Villa	38	19	9	10	58	51	7	66
7	Nottingham Forest Nott'm Forest	38	19	8	11	58	46	12	65
8	Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton	38	16	13	9	66	59	7	61
9	Bournemouth	38	15	11	12	58	46	12	56
10	Brentford	38	16	8	14	66	57	9	56
11	Fulham	38	15	9	14	54	54	0	54
12	Crystal Palace	38	13	14	11	51	51	0	53
13	Everton	38	11	15	12	42	44	-2	48
14	West Ham United West Ham	38	11	10	17	46	62	-16	43
15	Manchester United Man Utd	38	11	9	18	44	54	-10	42
16	Wolverhampton Wanderers Wolves	38	12	6	20	54	69	-15	42
17	Tottenham Hotspur Spurs	38	11	5	22	64	65	-1	38
R	Leicester City Leicester	38	6	7	25	33	80	-47	25
R	Ipswich Town Ipswich	38	4	10	24	36	82	-46	22
R	Southampton	38	2	6	30	26	86	-60	12
					> Premier League Full Table

Northern Ireland	Draw	Bulgaria
1-0 @ 17.06% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 11.54% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 8.28% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 5.21% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 3.74% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 1.76% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.34% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.26% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.81% Total : 52.01%	0-0 @ 12.6% ( -0.09) 1-1 @ 12.24% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 2.97% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.34% Total : 28.15%	0-1 @ 9.05% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 4.39% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 3.25% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.08% Total : 19.82%