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Leicester logo
Europa Conference League | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg
Apr 28, 2022 at 8pm UK
King Power Stadium
Roma logo
Leicester
1 - 1
Roma
Mancini (67' og.)
Dewsbury-Hall (26'), Vardy (59')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Pellegrini (15')
Abraham (8'), Zaniolo (63')

Preview: Leicester City vs. Roma - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Leicester City and Roma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Leicester City and Roma will begin their fight for a place in the Europa Conference League final on Thursday, with the first leg taking place at the King Power Stadium.

The Foxes overturned a late deficit to get past PSV Eindhoven in the quarter-finals, while a rampant second-leg display saw the Italian side dump out Bodo/Glimt.


Match preview

Leicester City manager Brendan Rodgers reacts on April 7, 2022© Reuters

In what has been a mixed domestic season for Leicester City in the Premier League, with the Foxes failing to keep pace in the fight for continental qualification, a European run has been somewhat of a shining light.

After dropping out of their Europa League group in third place, they entered Europe's third competition in the playoff round, and they thrashed Randers 7-2 over two legs before seeing off French outfit Rennes, eventually triumphing with a 3-2 aggregate win thanks to a 2-0 victory on home turf.

That booked a semi-final tie with Dutch high-fliers PSV Eindhoven, and, after a goalless first leg, Brendan Rodgers's side fell behind in the Netherlands and trailed by one goal with 15 minutes to go.

James Maddison then levelled the scoring, before Ricardo Pereira popped up with an 88th-minute winner to see them come out on top away from home and progress to the final four.

With the Midlands outfit 10th in the English top flight, after consecutive draws with Newcastle United and Aston Villa, the Europa Conference League presents their only viable chance to play on the continent next season, and they will hope to gain a lead in the tie on Thursday with home advantage.

Roma coach Jose Mourinho celebrates after the match on April 14, 2022© Reuters

They welcome a Roma side who have been heavily fancied to go far in the Europa Conference League since the beginning of the group stage, as Jose Mourinho's side cruised through to the round of 16 with relative ease, other than a shock 6-1 thrashing at the hands of Bodo/Glimt.

The Italian outfit then battled hard to scrape past Vitesse, before meeting Bodo/Glimt in the quarter-finals, and they again fell behind against the Norwegian side, heading into the second leg 2-1 down.

Mourinho's men were able to overturn the deficit on that occasion, though, picking up a dominant 4-0 victory on the day thanks to a Nicolo Zaniolo hat-trick after Tammy Abraham's opener.

That win saw the Giallorossi book their spot in the semi-finals, and they head into Thursday's first leg aiming to bounce back from a 3-1 league defeat to Inter Milan at the weekend, leaving them eight points outside of the top four in Serie A.

With the Conference League also being their only chance of silverware this season, Roma will aim to put themselves in a strong position before welcoming the Foxes to the Italian capital next week.

Leicester City Europa Conference League form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W

Leicester City form (all competitions):
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • D

Roma Europa Conference League form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W

Roma form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L



Team News

Leicester City's Youri Tielemans reacts to Crystal Palace being awarded a penalty on April 10, 2022© Reuters

Leicester City are set to remain without midfielder Wilfred Ndidi and defender Ryan Bertrand, while Jonny Evans and Boubakary Soumare are also not expected to feature.

Given the absences in midfield, Rodgers could deploy the trio of James Maddison, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and Youri Tielemans, with Wesley Fofana and Caglar Soyuncu partnering up at the heart of the defence.

Jamie Vardy is fit to feature after several injury issues throughout the season, while Patson Daka is also vying for a place in the starting XI, having hit six goals across Europa League and Europa Conference League action this season.

Roma will likely remain without attacker Nicolo Zaniolo, who fired them to the semi-finals with a hat-trick against Bodo/Glimt, after he missed the Inter Milan game through injury, while Bryan Cristante is sidelined and Leonardo Spinazzola is not expected to be thrown in from the start after his injury layoff since Euro 2020.

Tammy Abraham will lead their line, having hit 24 goals in 48 appearances this season since a summer switch from Chelsea, including eight goals in 10 Conference League games.

Mourinho should stick with his preferred back three system, with Gianluca Mancini, Chris Smalling and Roger Ibanez bringing stability.

Leicester City possible starting lineup:
Schmeichel; Pereira, Soyuncu, Fofana, Castagne; Dewsbury-Hall, Tielemans; Barnes, Maddison, Lookman; Daka

Roma possible starting lineup:
Patricio; Mancini, Smalling, Ibanez; Karsdorp, Oliveira, Veretout, Vina; Mkhitaryan, Pellegrini; Abraham


SM words green background

We say: Leicester City 2-1 Roma

With two evenly-matched sides squaring off in a high-stakes first leg, we expect a tight affair with little to separate them.

Ultimately, we would not be surprised to see the Foxes take a slender lead with home advantage, leaving everything in the balance for next week's meeting in Rome.


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leicester City win with a probability of 50.22%. A win for Roma had a probability of 26.32% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leicester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.02%) and 2-0 (7.93%). The likeliest Roma win was 1-2 (6.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Leicester vs Roma

Leicester City
58.1%
Draw
20.1%
Roma
21.8%
339
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Leicester City's Youri Tielemans reacts on March 10, 2022
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