With both managers likely to make wholesale changes for this match, it could be an open match at Home Park, with plenty of mistakes and a lack of match fitness on display.
However, the hosts should be able to call upon greater strength in depth having signed some quality first-team players during the summer transfer window, and we expect them to narrowly progress to the second round.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 52.46%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Leyton Orient had a probability of 23.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.65%) and 2-0 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.57%), while for a Leyton Orient win it was 0-1 (6.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Plymouth Argyle would win this match.
0.37) 
-0.1) 
