Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sierra Leone win with a probability of 40.96%. A win for Guinea-Bissau had a probability of 32.37% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sierra Leone win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.6%) and 0-2 (7.32%). The likeliest Guinea-Bissau win was 1-0 (9.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.