Preview: UFC 317: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira preview - prediction, tale of the tape, career records

UFC 317 will unfold live at the T-Mobile Arena this weekend, headlined by Ilia Topuria taking on Charles Oliveira for the vacant UFC Lightweight Championship. 

Flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja puts his title on the line against Kai Kara-France in the co-main event, while Brandon Royval faces off with Joshua Van earlier on the card.

Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira preview

With Islam Makhachev vacating the belt to pursue a welterweight clash against newly crowned 170-pound champion Jack Della Maddalena later this year, the lightweight division is now set to crown a new titleholder.

Ilia Topuria is making the move up to lightweight this weekend, where his first assignment will be to face a former champion in a bid to capture the 155-pound title and add a second belt to his resume after a dominant run at featherweight.

El Matador had an incredible year in 2024, claiming the featherweight title with a second-round knockout of Alexander Volkanovski and defending it in dominant fashion by finishing Max Holloway in the third round of their October clash in Abu Dhabi.

Topuria, who now boasts a flawless 16-0 record with 14 finishes, has earned a reputation as a legend killer, and ahead of his lightweight debut, vowed to take out Do Bronx just as he did to the long-time 145-pound king Volkanovski and UFC 'BMF' champ Holloway. 

The 28-year-old Georgian-Spanish fighter is best known for his combination striking with high volume and accuracy, but he also possesses elite defence and strong grappling skills, highlighted by an impressive 92% takedown defence rate.

Meanwhile, veteran Charles Oliveira made his breakthrough by capturing the title with a stoppage of Michael Chandler in 2021 and secured a rematch victory over “Iron” last November to earn another shot at championship gold.

The Brazilian dropped a competitive decision to Arman Tsarukyan at UFC 300 before rebounding against Chandler, and now steps into the Octagon looking to etch his name in the history books as well, seeking to become the first fighter to ever win the UFC lightweight title twice.

At 35 years old and holding a 35-10 record, Do Bronx has been around the block and will rely on his experience, composure under pressure, and technical striking and scrambling skills to try and stop the unbeaten Topuria this weekend. 

Oliveira holds height (1.78m vs. 1.7m) and reach (1.88m vs. 1.75m) advantages here, but El Matador, renowned for his featherweight power, is expected to carry a strength edge despite moving up a weight class.

Although Oliveira throws fewer strikes - 3.40 significant strikes per minute - he lands them with 55% accuracy, and while his takedown accuracy is modest at 40% on 2.25 attempts per 15 minutes, his ground game is deadly, leading the division with 2.7 submissions per 15 minutes.

Tale of the tape

Ilia Topuria

AGE: 28

NICKNAME: "El Matador"

HEIGHT: 5ft 7ins

REACH: 69ins

STANCE: Orthodox

FIGHTS: 16

WINS: 16

DRAWS: 0

DEFEATS: 0

LAST FIGHT: KO/TKO vs. Max Holloway (October 2024)

Charles Oliveira

AGE: 30

NICKNAME: "Do Bronx"

HEIGHT: 5ft 10ins

REACH: 74ins

STANCE: Orthodox

TRAINER: Diego Lima

FIGHTS: 46

WINS: 35

DRAWS: 0

DEFEATS: 10

NO CONTEST: 1

LAST FIGHT: Decision (unanimous) vs. Michael Chandler (November 2024)

Career records

Ilia Topuria

Rank: None

Total: 16

Wins: 16

By knockout: 6

By submission: 8

By decision: 2

Losses: 0

By knockout: 0

By submission:0 

By decision: 0

Charles Oliveira

Rank: #2

Total: 46

Wins: 35

By knockout: 10

By submission: 21

By decision: 4

Losses: 10

By knockout: 4

By submission: 4

By decision: 2

No contest: 1

We say: Ilia Topuria to win

Oliveira’s best path to victory is on the ground, but at 35, he has shown signs of decline, as we saw when he struggled to finish Chandler when the opportunity was there. Topuria’s takedown defence is elite, and if he keeps the fight standing, we feel he is likely to land something big and end the fight before the final air horn sounds. 

Written by
Devesh Jaganath

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