Wolff doubts Red Bull can master 2026 engine rules on debut

Max Verstappen may be more likely to consider leaving Red Bull in 2027 rather than as early as 2026, according to Mercedes boss Toto Wolff, who has questioned the energy drink-owned team’s ability to master Formula 1’s next major technical overhaul.

Although speculation is swirling again at the Red Bull Ring about talks resuming between Wolff and the four-time world champion, Wolff believes a move next season would be premature.

"Max is a loyal guy," Wolff told Kleine Zeitung and Krone newspapers. "I don't think he'll go for the first opportunity to jump ship even if he feels things are going south there."

He added that Verstappen’s decision could hinge on internal team dynamics and performance: "The dynamics around Helmut Marko certainly play a role, and certainly also whether the car is competitive for next year."

With sweeping changes to power unit regulations coming in 2026, the performance of Red Bull’s all-new, in-house engine - built in collaboration with Ford - will be a major factor.

Mercedes, meanwhile, continues to develop engines at its Brixworth base, a programme refined over decades.

"It's always possible that something good will come out of their (Red Bull's) new infrastructure and their people," said Wolff. "But if you calculate how likely that is, it would be a real feat if they succeed in making a big splash right away."

Pointing to Mercedes' own experience, Wolff continued: "Our engine structure has developed over 30 years."

He noted that Mercedes dominated the start of the hybrid era: "Of course I would like it to be like 2014 again, but McLaren, Williams, and Alpine will also get our engine."

He warned that any team getting the 2026 engine rules wrong could face serious consequences.

"What is clear is that if someone completely messes up when it comes to the engine - whether it's Red Bull, Ferrari, or even us - then they will have a real problem," Wolff said.

"Because you're not talking about a deficit of tenths of a second, but much more than that."

Wolff admitted that even Mercedes could fall into that trap, confessing: "We're completely in the dark. Perhaps there's some concept we've overlooked, both in the car and the engine. The main differences will be in the batteries, but in any case, we've already stopped putting much energy into the current car."

He added that development focus at Mercedes has already shifted to 2026: "A small group is now only concerned with optimising the setup. But there are no longer any long-term developments in terms of aerodynamics.

"Even if the others bring out an update here and there, their focus is also 100% on next year. Anyone who starts later than this is taking a real risk."

That sentiment is shared by others in the paddock, including Aston Martin's trackside engineering director Mike Krack, who said: "The declared improvements document will soon become very boring."