Preview: USA vs Guatemala - prediction, team news, lineups

Tournament hosts USA are one win away from the Gold Cup decider as they prepare for Wednesday's semi-final against underdogs Guatemala.

Both sides progressed from the first knockout round on penalties, setting up a high-stakes showdown in St Louis.

Match preview

Aiming to reclaim the title of CONCACAF's top team, after failing to defend the Gold Cup two years ago, the USMNT took one step closer to the grand prize when they edged past Costa Rica last weekend.

After breezing through the group stage with an 8-1 goal difference - beating Saudi Arabia, Haiti, and Trinidad & Tobago - they were finally put through a stern test in Minneapolis.

Mauricio Pochettino's men overcame several setbacks - giving away an early penalty, missing one of their own, plus conceding a late equaliser - to prevail on spot kicks, after Diego Luna and Max Arfsten had both scored their first international goal in an eventful 2-2 draw.

With no extra time to be played except for in the final, their close-fought quarter-final tie went straight to a shootout, in which Damion Downs scored the winner after three saves from Matt Freese.

So, the Stars and Stripes are still undefeated, and they are just one round away from facing either outsiders Honduras or old foes Mexico in Sunday's final.

The US have reached the semis in 17 of 18 Gold Cups to date, including 13 straight since 2000, so they were always expected to make the last four despite playing with a weakened squad this summer. 

While the seven-time champions are missing many regulars for various reasons, pressure is still on Pochettino to improve on the recent CONCACAF Nations League campaign, where his team finished fourth. 

Their hosts may have one eye on silverware and another on making an impact at next year's World Cup, but Guatemala are simply happy to be in the Gold Cup semi-finals.

Luis Fernando Tena's side only finished second in Group C by virtue of a nervy 3-2 triumph over minnows Guadeloupe, having previously beaten Jamaica and lost to Panama.

That saw Guatemala go through to the quarter-finals for a second successive occasion, and Sunday's quarter-final marked just their fourth last-eight appearance this century.

They had exited at that stage each time, but they finally broke through last week by toppling Canada in a tense penalty shootout.

La Azul y Blanco took advantage of their opponents going down to 10 men during first-half stoppage time, as Rubio Rubin levelled Jonathan David's opening goal and sent the tie to spot kicks.

Having missed just once from 12 yards to win 6-5, Guatemala now aim to conquer another North American heavyweight; however, they have lost four of their last five meetings with the United States, conceding 17 goals in the process.

USA CONCACAF Gold Cup form: W W W W

USA form (all competitions): L L W W W W

Guatemala CONCACAF Gold Cup form: W L W W

Guatemala form (all competitions): W L W L W W

Team News

In the absence of their best players - including Christian Pulisic, Yunus Musah, Weston McKennie, Gio Reyna and Antonee Robinson - the US came into this competition with a squad reshaped by injuries and Club World Cup commitments.

Malik Tillman and Patrick Agyemang have taken their chance to build a productive partnership up front, while Max Arfsten and Diego Luna have both recorded three goal involvements.

Barely involved in the tournament so far, new Atletico Madrid signing Johnny Cardoso remains doubtful due to an ankle injury, so Tyler Adams and Luca de la Torre are set to feature in the midfield engine room of Mauricio Pochettino's 4-2-3-1 formation.

Meanwhile, Charlotte FC centre-back Tim Ream, who has a squad-high 73 senior caps, should start in front of new number one goalkeeper Matt Freese.

Guatemala's XI for their first Gold Cup semi-final since 1996 will feature several players who play Stateside, including D.C. United defender Aaron Herrera and main marksman Rubio Rubin - the latter was born in Oregon but switched allegiance in 2022.

Columbus Crew goalkeeper Nicholas Hagen has been ruled out for the rest of the Gold Cup, though, so Kenderson Navarro must deputise again.

USA possible starting lineup: Freese; Freeman, Richards, Ream, Arfsten; Adams, De La Torre; Aaronson, Tilmann, Luna; Agyemang

Guatemala possible starting lineup: Navarro; Herrera, Pinto, Samayoa, Morales; Rosales, Saravia, Robles; Escobar, Rubin, Santis

We say: USA 2-1 Guatemala

In spite of their diminished squad, an unfamiliar USA side have shown signs of progress at their home tournament, and they should now make it through to the final.

The hosts can get past opponents that have only won one game in 90 minutes so far, as surprise semi-finalists Guatemala make a belated exit.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.

Written by
Jonathan O'Shea

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