Mexico vs Saudi Arabia - prediction, team news, lineups

Mexico will continue their quest to retain the Gold Cup crown when they face tournament invitees Saudi Arabia in the quarter-finals this weekend at State Farm Stadium.

El Tri booked their place in the knockout phase by topping Group A, while the Asian representatives advanced as runners-up in their own bracket.

Match preview

As reigning champions, it comes as no surprise to see Mexico return to the quarter-finals – a stage they have grown accustomed to.

Javier Aguirre’s side began their title defence with a hard-fought 3-2 win over Dominican Republic, followed by a composed 2-0 victory against Suriname, while a goalless draw with Costa Rica ensured that the 2023 champions progressed as group winners for the fifth consecutive campaign.

Progressing beyond this point has also become a habit for Mexico, who have reached the semi-finals in each of the last nine editions of the competition.

That record certainly speaks volumes, although El Tri must remain vigilant, as their last quarter-final defeat came against another invitee in 2005, when they lost 2-1 loss to Colombia.

Nevertheless, having emerged victorious in all four previous meetings with Saudi Arabia – across the World Cup and Confederations Cup – Mexico will have reason to feel confident ahead of this weekend’s contest.

El Tri have picked up six wins in their last nine outings across all competitions (D1, L2) since the start of the year, and that strong run provides an additional layer of belief as Aguirre’s men push for back-to-back titles.

For Saudi Arabia, reaching the quarter-finals as debutants in the tournament is a milestone achievement on its own, but facing the most successful side in the competition’s history with nine titles was not the draw they would have hoped for.

The Green Falcons managed to finish second in Group D after collecting four points from a win, a draw and a loss, and in all fairness, those results were never likely to shield them from a heavyweight clash. 

Herve Renard’s men edged past Haiti 1-0 in their opener, fell to a narrow defeat against the United States and then played out a 1-1 draw with Trinidad and Tobago to narrowly book their passage to the last eight.

They may lack the firepower going forward, but Saudi Arabia have relied on defensive solidity to grind out results, conceding just four goals in their last eight games across all competitions – with all four victories in that stretch (D2, L2) coming with clean sheets.

Whether that backline can withstand Mexico’s attack remains to be seen, especially against a side that has hit the back of the net 12 times in their last seven matches.

Mexico Gold Cup form:

Mexico form (all competitions):

Saudi Arabia Gold Cup form:

Saudi Arabia form (all competitions):

Team News

Mexico came into this tournament with some key absentees, as Hirving Lozano and Henry Martin both sustained training-ground knocks, while Jesus Angulo withdrew from the squad weeks earlier. 

Fortunately for Aguirre, their most recent outing ended without any fresh concerns, meaning there are no new additions to the treatment table.

However, the former Real Mallorca manager will be without centre-back Cesar Montes, who is suspended after collecting a second yellow card in as many games during the stalemate with Costa Rica.

Montes’s absence will be felt not just at the back but also from set pieces, with the 28-year-old currently the team’s top scorer after netting three times from corner situations.

That puts added pressure on Wolverhampton Wanderers striker Raul Jimenez, who will be expected to lead the line and add to the one goal he has scored in the tournament so far.

Feras Albrikan began in a central role on matchday two but was more effective from the flanks in their last match, scoring the leveller for Saudi Arabia and likely doing enough to keep his place in the line-up.

It is worth noting the Asians are without some regulars, including Nawaf Al Dawsari and Salem Al Dawsari, who were both excluded due to their involvement in the FIFA Club World Cup.

Mexico possible starting lineup:

Malagon; Sanchez, Reyes, Vasquez, M. Chavez; Alvarez, L. Chavez; Alvarado, Ruiz, Vega; Jimenez

Saudi Arabia possible starting lineup:

Al-Aqidi; Majrashi, Al-Amri, Madu, Boushal; Aljohani, Yahya, Ali; Albrikan, Al-Sherhi, Al-Aboud

We say: Mexico 1-0 Saudi Arabia

Given Mexico’s pedigree at this level and their perfect record against Saudi Arabia, they should have just enough to advance – although it may be a tight affair against a side that has built its progress on discipline and defensive grit.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.

Written by
Adeyeye Oluwapelumi